Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.191452 0.223352 0.258341 0.299485 0.346460 0.398334 0.459871
2025-10-26 0.137080 0.179895 0.231886 0.299281 0.383899 0.486154 0.618561
2025-11-02 0.106721 0.153054 0.213757 0.298268 0.411889 0.558231 0.759648
2025-11-09 0.085435 0.132111 0.197297 0.293586 0.430492 0.616140 0.884410
2025-11-16 0.070048 0.115862 0.183568 0.288907 0.446117 0.668908 1.004442
2025-11-23 0.057006 0.100449 0.168135 0.278610 0.450950 0.705126 1.102399
2025-11-30 0.052342 0.097289 0.170486 0.294805 0.495935 0.802390 1.295994
2025-12-07 0.043917 0.086328 0.158653 0.286641 0.501575 0.840079 1.402112
2025-12-14 0.036909 0.076599 0.147355 0.277575 0.504121 0.872189 1.500896
2025-12-21 0.031531 0.068923 0.138457 0.271251 0.510037 0.909368 1.609591
2025-12-28 0.028452 0.065167 0.136067 0.275986 0.535022 0.979326 1.776402
2026-01-04 0.026480 0.063315 0.136947 0.286663 0.571227 1.070552 1.984825
2026-01-11 0.024111 0.060326 0.135391 0.292846 0.600393 1.152848 2.185830
2026-01-18 0.021665 0.056768 0.132249 0.295606 0.623497 1.226382 2.377280
2026-01-25 0.019238 0.052804 0.127680 0.294847 0.639532 1.287969 2.551185
2026-02-01 0.016835 0.048450 0.121640 0.290234 0.647335 1.334590 2.700577
2026-02-08 0.014758 0.044508 0.115946 0.285604 0.654466 1.380129 2.850574
2026-02-15 0.012613 0.039959 0.108178 0.275414 0.648938 1.400536 2.953896
2026-02-22 0.012245 0.040188 0.111826 0.291442 0.700323 1.536224 3.287880
2026-03-01 0.010619 0.036535 0.105426 0.283362 0.698665 1.565484 3.414953
2026-03-08 0.009165 0.033077 0.098996 0.274390 0.694046 1.588100 3.529845
2026-03-15 0.008018 0.030306 0.093940 0.268131 0.694868 1.621832 3.669042
2026-03-22 0.007433 0.029217 0.093269 0.272818 0.721398 1.711603 3.928917